Paper Details

Flood frequency analysis and prediction are crucial in hydrology, estimating flood probability for water resource infrastructure design and management. This presents result of frequency analysis and prediction of future peak flow of the Benue River using the Gumbel’s distribution method which is one of the probability distribution methods used to model stream flows. The method was used to model the annual maximum discharge of the river from Makurdi hydrological station for a period of 36 years (1988 to 2023). Regression analysis was used to test the suitability of the method, and to predict the future peak discharge for every return period. The R2value obtained (0.978) shows that, Gumbel distribution is suitable for predicting the expected discharge in the study area. The result also revealed that, 2, 20 and 100 years flood with the exceedence probability of 0.5, 0.05, and 0.01, have expected peak flood values of approximately 11528.5, 15354.7 and 17750 meter cube per second respectively. The frequency curve at 95% confidence interval also shows anincreasing trend at progressive recurrence interval, highlighting the potential variability of flood magnitude in the study area. Findings from this study provides useful information for flood risk management in Makurdi and it environ. KEYWORDS: Flood Frequency Analysis, Gumbel’s Distribution Method, Benue River, Makurdi